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How can I improve the accuracy of time series forecasts with limited data?
Asked on Jan 29, 2026
Answer
Improving the accuracy of time series forecasts with limited data requires careful selection of models and techniques that can handle small datasets effectively. Leveraging methods such as data augmentation, feature engineering, and model selection tailored for small samples can enhance predictive performance.
Example Concept: Consider using techniques like bootstrapping to generate additional samples from the existing data, which can help in training more robust models. Additionally, employing simple models such as ARIMA or exponential smoothing can be beneficial, as they are less prone to overfitting compared to complex models. Feature engineering, such as creating lagged variables or using external regressors, can also provide additional information to the model, improving accuracy.
Additional Comment:
- Evaluate the use of cross-validation techniques specific to time series, like time series split, to assess model performance reliably.
- Consider incorporating domain knowledge to guide feature selection and model assumptions.
- Explore ensemble methods like bagging or boosting with simple base models to enhance robustness.
- Regularly update the model as new data becomes available to maintain accuracy over time.
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